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Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Actuarial Science covers many of the diverse methods in applied probability and statistics for students aspiring to careers in insurance, actuarial science, and finance. The book builds on students’ existing knowledge of probability and statistics by establishing a solid and thorough understanding of these methods. It also emphasizes the wide variety of practical situations in insurance and actuarial science where these techniques may be used.

 

Although some chapters are linked, several can be studied independently from the others. The first chapter introduces claims reserving via the deterministic chain ladder technique. The next few chapters survey loss distributions, risk models in a fixed period of time, and surplus processes, followed by an examination of credibility theory in which collateral and sample information are brought together to provide reasonable methods of estimation. In the subsequent chapter, experience rating via no claim discount schemes for motor insurance provides an interesting application of Markov chain methods. The final chapters discuss generalized linear models and decision and game theory.

Developed by an author with many years of teaching experience, this text presents an accessible, sound foundation in both the theory and applications of actuarial science. It encourages students to use the statistical software package R to check examples and solve problems.

• Sales Rank: #2714014 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Chapman and Hall/CRC
• Published on: 2007-03-05
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.21" h x .81" w x 6.14" l, 1.54 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 368 pages

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• Used Book in Good Condition

Review

This book is meant to serve as a textbook for students seeking careers in insurance, actuarial science, or finance. … The author provides a variety of worked examples in each chapter to illustrate the main ideas, with an emphasis on those of more numerical and practical nature. Although good references for further reading are provided, basic knowledge in probability and statistics is required. This book will also serve as a nice reference for an insurance analyst.
―Technometrics, February 2009, Vol. 51, No. 1

… There are not many other books that cover actuarial topics based on statistical methods in so complete a way as this one. … this book is quite adequate as a companion book for anyone in involved with the mathematical concepts of statistics and probability models in actuarial science, and it is essential in a university library where these topics are taught.
―Journal of Applied Statistics, 2007

This book is aimed both at students of actuarial science and related subjects and at insurance and actuarial practitioners. … The treatment is clear throughout, with an ample supply of problems and worked examples. The book would be useful both for teachers of actuarial science and for self-study.
―N.H. Bingham, Imperial College, International Statistical Review, 2007

… The book has grown out of lecture notes and gives an overview on mathematical techniques used in actuarial practice. The main focus of the book is general insurance (property and casualty insurance, nonlife insurance). Besides theory, the book gives many exercises and presents R code.
―Mario V. Wüthrich, ETH Zurich, The American Statistician, November 2008

This is a very nice book.
―Tonglin Zhang, Mathematical Reviews, 2009a

About the Author
University College Dublin, Ireland

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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
nice coverage of new and old statistical methods in actuarial science
By Michael R. Chernick
I was particularly interested in this book because my son is planning on studying actuarial science at Ohio State. Also as a statistician who has in the past worked on statistical methods for loss reserving in workers compensation insurance, I was curious to see if any of the techniques that we developed are included and to find out what the state of the art is in actuarial science including methods applicable to workers compensation that we overlooked.

Boland's text provides a wealth of informationon statistical and probabilist techniques used in the isurance industries. The first chapter deals with claim or loss reserving and pricing. The method that we called loss triangles are covered here and are called run-off triangles. Three particular methods are covered.

Chapter 2 is a detailed account of loss distributions. There are text books on that topic alone. Probability theory comes up in chapters 3 and 4 on risk theory and ruin theory respectively. Chapter 5 covers credibility theory ( a topic I was not familiar with) and give the Bayesian approach to it. The specialized topic of no claim discounting in auto insurance is the subject of chapter 6. Generalized linear models a technique introduced by John Nelder is the subject of chapter 7. The classical multiple linear regression for normally distributed variables is covered as a special case.

Statistical decision theory and game theory are treated in chapter 8. Appendices A-D provide basic probability, commonly used tools from probability and statistics and introductory Bayesian statistics are the topics of appendices A-C and Appendix D provides solutions to selected exercises from the main text.

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[T425.Ebook] Ebook Download The Computer and the Brain (The Silliman Memorial Lectures Series), by John von Neumann

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In this classic work, one of the greatest mathematicians of the twentieth century explores the analogies between computing machines and the living human brain. John von Neumann, whose many contributions to science, mathematics, and engineering include the basic organizational framework at the heart of today's computers, concludes that the brain operates both digitally and analogically, but also has its own peculiar statistical language.

In his foreword to this new edition, Ray Kurzweil, a futurist famous in part for his own reflections on the relationship between technology and intelligence, places von Neumann’s work in a historical context and shows how it remains relevant today.

• Sales Rank: #312264 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Yale University Press
• Published on: 2012-08-28
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 7.75" h x .34" w x 5.00" l, .31 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 136 pages

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• Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author

At the time of his death in February 1957, John von Neumann, renowned for his theory of games and his work at the Electronic Computer Project at the Institute for Advanced Study, was serving as a member of the Atomic Energy Commission. Ray Kurzweil is an inventor, author, and futurist who has written six books including The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.

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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Deserves More Than 5 Stars
By Tuck Newport
John von Neumann was the principal architect (in 1945) of the design from which all subsequent electronic computers trace their lineage. As he was dying of bone cancer, this giant of 20th Century mathematics and physics wrote the last of his 150 research papers, "The Computer and the Brain".

In 80 pages, von Neumann describes the key components and processes of computers and of brains and then analyzes their similarities and differences. Developments in both computer science and neuroscience during the intervening six decades have corroborated his overall analysis. Von Neumann had a better grasp in 1956 than proponents of AI have today of what differentiates artificial intelligence (computers) from biological intelligence (brains). In the last section of "The Computer and the Brain", von Neumann goes to considerable lengths to explain exactly how computers differ from brains:

"It should also be noted that the message-system used in the nervous system, as described in the above, is of an essentially statistical character. In other words, what matters are not the precise positions of definite markers, digits, but the statistical characteristics of their occurrence, i.e., frequencies of periodic or nearly periodic pulse-trains, etc.

"Thus the nervous system appears to be using a radically different system of notation from the ones we are familiar with in ordinary arithmetic and mathematics. Instead of the precise systems of markers where the position--and presence or absence--of every marker counts decisively in determining the meaning of the message, we have here a system of notations in which the meaning is conveyed by the statistical properties of the message. We have seen how this leads to a lower level of arithmetical precision but to a higher level of logical reliability: a deterioration in arithmetics has been traded for an improvement in logics."

Or, to quote von Neumann again farther down the same page, "The Language of the Brain is Not the Language of Mathematics".

Try to imagine transistor logic gates, arithmetic logic units, integrated circuits, multi-core microprocessors, neuromorphic chips, neural networks, massively parallel systems, software algorithms, etc.--all without math. Good luck.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Something of a historical curiosity
By Phred
Perhaps more so than Alan Turing, (If we accept the intro by Kirtzweil, a man with serious credentials), John von Neuman was one of the most important figures in developing the basic architecture of the modern digital computer. The two did work together, but von Neuman was the senior and I propose had a better grasp of the juncture of math and machine.
The Computer and the Brain is the last published work by von Neuman and was an attempt to bring together what was known about the machine qualities of the brain and what the machines of 1957 might one day be able to accomplish.
As such almost everything is dated and new discoveries in neuroscience more so than in computers place limits on the absolute value of his comments.

That said, there was a head line in recent science news that there is a prototype computer in testing that combines both digital and large scale parallel computing in the manner von Neuman suggests as the model for how the brain may work.

The Computer and the Brain is the printed from of a lecture. He was too ill (mortally) for the series he was offered to conduct. So great was the respect for the man that he was allowed to present only these papers, sufficient for one lecture and about 3 hours reading. I do not think he read the paper; he had just the strength to write it.

Besides having been a vitally important mathematician, he was active in the cause of scientific ethics and as the man who drafted the letter, signed by Einstein credited with America committing to atomic research he is therefore a originator of the atomic age. He was a man of great thought and influence.
Reading this book is a chance to listen to a great mind. I make no claim to have understood all of it. I suspect that no one should read it in an effort to be at the leading edge of math, computers or neurology. It is a hard, but worth it read, and a glass into our recent history.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Slightly Ahead of his Time
By John P. Kyle
Like Panasonic, Neumann was slightly ahead of his time.
I'm currently reading Neumann's biography by Macrea. In addition to his understanding of mathematics, Neumann had the ability to extrapolate evolving seemingly unrelated sciences with astonishing accuracy.
People interested in these topics should also have interest in reading The Mind and the Brain: Neuroplasty and the Power of Mental Force by Jeffrey Schwartz (not a new book).
JPK

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[T187.Ebook] Free Ebook The Little Blue Box of Bright and Early Board Books

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• Published on: 2012
• Binding: Hardcover

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• Published on: 2012-01-01
• Binding: Unknown Binding

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7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
reference book for electrical anlogies to mechanical systems
By X42
It will help if you have an engineering background (say electrical) and have done introductory control systems analysis to read this. The book is a solid reference biased to practical physical systems. Gives the electrical network analogies as well as dynamical analysis - many pictures, very simple English explanations - very much practical bent. Plenty of maths - but in that simple 1960's style.

Recommended.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Great read, maybe not a good reference book
By Salvador A. Valdes
If you actually plan on sitting down and reading a book on systems and signals, this one is great. It also has some cute tidbits on how to plot graphs using your slide rule. Not great if you just want to skim through and find an equation.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent introduction to system analysis: thorough, useful, practical, and fun to read!
By Secluded Path
I bought this book out of plain curiosity, since I became interested in the art and science of system analysis due to problems I encountered in my daily work as an Earth scientist. The book is clearly focused on the dynamics and control of technical systems and is therefore mostly suited to engineers. The writing style is clear, pedagogical and even entertaining. Although the book might surely show its age, I found the theory and basic methodology general enough and of such fundamental nature to be still suitable for application in many problems, even in those of the Earth Sciences which I am interested in. In particular, I found the modelling of systems by electrical and mechanical analogues a useful and illuminating approach, at least at the conceptual level. Although these techniques have obviously fallen in disuse with the introduction of the digital computer and advanced modelling techniques (i.e. finite element and the like) I am of the opinion that they still represent a superior choice for the first approach to a low-dimensional problem and also for teaching and conceptual modelling. Overall a highly recommended read at a more than reasonable price.

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